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Mathematics and Cognition Seminar Fall 2009 Tuesdays 12:15 Psych 161 Seminar Schedule: <http://math.la.asu.edu/~tom/cognition/math+cogsched.html> Cookies and Coffee Starting at 12:00 Note the New Location! Map ("X" marks the spot) |
On Tuesday, October 20, at 12:15 in Psych 161, |
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On the topic: |
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"Markov Chain-Smoking" |
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Abstract Survivor functions from smoking cessation trials are captured by a two-process Markov-chain model. A simpler mixture of Weibull and exponential decay functions approximates that model, and fits the data equally well. Both models suggest that early attrition constitutes a separate stage in the abstention process, one possibly associated with the repopulation of receptors such as those for D2 after their down-regulation in the face of MAOIs from tobacco. The mixture model also indicates that long-term abstinence is never secure, as relapse is likely occur with a half-life on the order of a year. The maths are used as a techno-justification for a rant against nicotine as a bogeyman, distraction from other factors in relapse, countenance of the #1 killer as a freely traded commodity, and low-profiling or prohibition of much safer forms of tobacco.. Bio Dr. Peter Killeen is Professor of Psychology at Arizona State University, and has also been Visiting Scholar at the University of Texas, Cambridge University, and the Centre for Advanced Study, Oslo. He is a Fellow of the Society of Experimental Psychologists, has held a Senior Scientist Award from National Institute of Mental Health, has been President of the Society for the Quantitative Analyses of Behavior (from which organization he appropriately received the Poetry in Science Award in 2002), held the American Psychological Association F. J. McGuigan Lectureship on Understanding the Human Mind, and received the Ernest and Josephine Hilgard Award for the Best Theoretical Paper (Killeen & Nash, 2003). Dr. Killeen has made many highly innovative and fundamental contributions to the experimental and quantitative analysis of behavior. His major work includes the development of incentive theory, culminating in the mathematical principles of reinforcement (Behavioural and Brain Sciences, 1994), and the behavioral theory of timing (Psychological Review, 1988). He is the author of 80 peer-reviewed papers, many of which have been heavily cited. He has served on the boards of editors of the Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, Behavioural Processes, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Behavior Processes, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, Psychological Review, Brain & Behavioral Functions, and Comparative Cognition & Behavior Reviews. Dr. KilleenŐs quantitative and conceptual developments have enriched behavior analysis and the world beyond. Peter got his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1969 with BF Skinner. His research interests are simple: How do we learn? How do we forget? What motivates us? How do we perceive the passage of time? How do we discount delayed or probabilistic goods? What is information, and how do we use it? What is a scientific explanation; what must it include, what must it omit? How may we undergird scientific inference with better techniques than NHST? In general, how do we find a resonance between models and data; and how do we tune our theories to amplify that resonance? |