Speaker:Gerardo Chowell,
Los Alamos National Laboratory

Title:Transmission and Control of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza

Abstract:Recurrent epidemics of influenza are observed seasonally around the world with considerable health and economic consequences. Major changes in the influenza virus composition through antigenic shifts can give rise to pandemics. The reproductive number provides a measure of the transmissibility of infectious diseases and determines the intensity of interventions necessary for their control. We estimated the reproductive number for seasonal and pandemic influenza. We estimated the reproductive number across influenza seasons in the United States, France, and Australia for the last 3 decades. In regards to pandemic influenza, we estimated the reproductive number for the first two waves of influenza infection during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Geneva, Switzerland. I will discuss the public health implications of our findings in terms of controlling regular influenza epidemics and an influenza pandemic under comparable conditions to that of 1918. Work in collaboration with: C. Viboud, M. A. Miller (Fogarty International Center, NIH), C.E. Ammon (Inst. Of Soc. and Prev. Med.,U of Switzerland, Switzerland), N.W. Hengartner, and J.M. Hyman (Los Alamos).