PSA 307, Friday March 4th, 2005 ,  3.40p.m- 4.30p.m

 Speaker: Patrick Nelson, Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan

Title:  Back to the basics to improve our ability to model infectious diseases

Abstract :
Infectious disease modeling has become one of the hottest topics in
mathematical biology, but as I will show many of the models are suspect as
certain basic mathematical techniques are overlooked. I will focus on
models for HIV dynamics and show the ways that we can improve upon our
modeling of diseases. For instance, numerous models have been used to
predict parameters from patient data in HIV but applying a simple
technique from algebra, called model identifiability, I have been able to
show that the models we have been using are not identifiable to the
parameters. Hence, we have begun to explore ways of putting modeling of ID
on solid ground using techniques such as identifiability, sensitivity, and
selection; also techniques from statistical methods such as bootstrapping
and monte carlo.

I will comment on the progress that we have been making in these areas and
also comment on improvements that we have found in modeling using delay
differential equations.