Speaker:Xiaohong wong ,
Department of Mathematics ans Statistics and School of Liberal Arts and Sciences,
Arizona State University

Title:Backward Bifurcation in a Mathematical Model with Tuberculosis with Loss of Immunity

Abstract:A mathematical model is developed to study the impact of loss of immunity on the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis (TB). Center manifold theory is applied to show that a backward bifurcation
may occur under certain conditions, that is, a stable endemic steady-state may exist for R0 <1. For a simplified model,
it is shown that the unique endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. Sensitivity and uncertainty
analysis using Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method are presented to evaluate the variability of the
model outcomes as a result of alternating parameter values, and to determine which parameters play key roles
in producing the observed variability. Stochastic simulations are also performed.