Draft#1: 12/8/02
Statement:
Modeling and simulation of human behavior will be one of the most important and difficult emerging disciplines of this century. The human and the social are the foundation of all sciences and the context of engineering. Human-machine and human-human interactions are complex, nonlinear, adaptive, strongly coupled and evolving. Complex patterns emerge from these interactions. Effective characterization of human dynamical behavior has been lacking. That this characterization is essential for engineering design, in its broadest sense, is witnessed by the failure of countless engineered systems, with consequences from commercial failure to loss of life. Recently, the most surface aspects of motor and cognitive behavior and the deepest substrate behavior at the level of neurons have been effectively treated by modern mathematical modeling. Extending the range and accuracy of human behavior modeling and simulation will bring safer, more commercially viable design.

• Goal: Effective Human Dynamical Modeling and Simulation.
  
  
• Mission Statement: ASU will be a preeminant national center for modeling and simulation of human dynamics by 2005.
  
  
• Timetable
  
  
  • Better Human Science & Engineering (Starting 2003)
    
    • human data models
      
    • human mimetics
      
    • augmented human intellegence
      
    • artificial intellegence
      
    • wetware in the loop
      
    • group dynamics in the loop
      
    • economic and financial modeling
      
    • teaching
      
      
  • NSF human and social dynamics funds ($1M/yr starting 2004)
    
    • Seeks many of the other payoffs mentioned here
      
      
  • DOD Funding (Starting 2004-5)
    
    • conflict detection, prediction, prevention
      
    • Urban battlefield (Somalia etc.)
      
      
  • Intellectual Property (Starting 2004-5)
    
    • Patents-algorithms, software, machines
      
    • Copyright: software
      
    • Trade secrets: sellable competitive advantage
      
      
  • Industrial, Financial Contracts, Licensing (Starting 2005)
    
    • “Advertising”(broad sense)
      
      • Engineering social response (morality?)
        
    • advanced ”human factors” design-human/machine interface
      
      • Human cognitive-electro-mechanical dynamics in the loop
        
        • Example: Instability of F15
          
      • Social-human-cognitive-electro-mechanical dynamics in the loop.
        
        • Training
          
        • The fate of innovation
          
        • Economic disruption
          
        • Example: Apple Newton
          
          
          
          
• Organizational Model: Group for Human Dynamics Modeling and Simulation
  
  
• Intellectual organization: the maximally connected graph
  
  

• Administrative organization
  
  • Director(group member, elected by steering committee after 2004)
    
  • Steering Committee: 5 members
    
    • 3 members of group, elected by group
      
    • 1 outside member appointed by administration
      
    • 1 industry advisor
      
  • On individual grants of members processed through the center. Direct funds on special grants will retained by individual investigators, center will retain portion of overhead
    
    
    
    
• Start-up Cost Model:Group for Human Dynamics Modeling and Simulation
  
  
• Current Required Capital Investment From the University
  
  • Dignity: creating “The Center for Human Dynamics”
    
    • For now a Center-in-Name only: $0 budget
      
  • Current Resources:
    
    • Regular access to meeting room
      
    • Coffee and dougnuts
      
  • Dedicted SPO
    
  • Honoraria for advisors $???
    
  • intellegence: who is the competition?
    
    
• Currently required Investment from members:
  
  • Sweat equity
    
    • Hard thinking
      
    • writing
      
    • networking
      
    • communication
      
  • intellegence: who is the competition?
    
  • Selling Points
    
  • What can we do better?
    
• the loop:
  
• Modeling and Simulation of Human Behavior
  
• Security Issues
  
  
  
• Interesting Links:
  
  
• The Symbiotic Intelligence Project <http://ishi.lanl.gov/symintel.html>
  
  
• Modelling the Spatial Dynamics and Social Interaction of Human Recreators Using GIS and Intelligent Agents<http://nexus.srnr.arizona.edu/~gimblett/modsim97.html>
  
  
• The knowledge management puzzle: Human and social factors in knowledge management<http://www.research.ibm.com/journal/sj/404/thomas.html>
  
  
• Human Dimensions of Global Change <http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/ProgramElements/human.htm>
  
  
  
• Human Agency, External Factors, and Discourse <http://www.consecol.org/vol4/iss1/resp3/>
  
  
• Aubrey Immelman - Group Dynamics Text <http://www.users.csbsju.edu/~aimmelma/text.htm>
  
  
• Group Dynamics for the Online Professor <http://ausweb.scu.edu.au/aw99/papers/king/paper.html>
  
  
• NONLINEAR DYNAMICS IN HUMAN BEHAVIOR <http://www.wspc.com/books/chaos/3173.html>